[SMM Hot Topic] Under the influence of anti-dumping and a high base in the same period last year, China's steel exports were up 9% YoY from January to May, while HRC exports fell by more than 22%!

• From January to May, imports of sheets & plates decreased by 16.8% YoY, with significant declines in coated and plated sheets (strips) and HRC.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China imported 481,000 mt of steel in May, down 7.9% MoM. From January to May, cumulative steel imports reached 2.553 million mt, down 16.1% YoY.

From January to May, China imported a cumulative 2.116 million mt of sheets & plates, down 16.8% YoY. By product type, cumulative imports of coated sheets (strips) decreased by 38.3% YoY, plated sheets (strips) decreased by 24.2% YoY, HRC decreased by 22.5% YoY, and medium-thickness plates decreased by 18.3% YoY. In addition, cumulative imports of strip steel, cold-rolled sheets, and electrical steel sheets (strips) all showed varying degrees of decline YoY.

• From January to May, exports of sheets & plates decreased by 0.8% YoY, with HRC exports declining by over 22%.

Data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China exported 10.578 million mt of steel in May 2025, up 1.1% MoM. From January to May, cumulative steel exports reached 48.469 million mt, up 8.9% YoY.

From January to May, China exported a cumulative 30.387 million mt of sheets & plates, down 0.8% YoY. By product type, cumulative exports of HRC decreased by 22.1% YoY, far exceeding the decline of other sheet products. Cumulative exports of cold-rolled sheets decreased by 5.3% YoY. However, for other product types besides cold-rolled and HRC, such as strip steel, medium-thickness plates, coated/plated sheets (strips), and electrical steel sheets (strips), cumulative exports all showed varying degrees of growth YoY.

Since 2025, anti-dumping sanctions against ordinary steel products such as HRC from China in overseas markets have escalated. Against the backdrop of a high base in the same period last year, HRC exports have been significantly impacted.

In terms of the proportion of sheet product exports, from January to May 2025, the export share of plated sheets (strips) increased from 25% to 28%, medium-thickness plates increased from 13% to 15%, coated sheets (strips) increased from 9% to 13%, and strip steel increased from 1% to 2%.

However, the export share of HRC decreased from 40% to 31%, and the export share of cold-rolled sheets decreased from 10% to 9%.

Against the backdrop of increasingly fierce competition in exports, the impact of anti-dumping measures continues to rise. In the traditional export structure of steel sheets & plates, the proportion of cold-rolled and HRC is gradually declining, while the proportion of relatively high value-added materials such as coated/plated sheets (strips) is gradually increasing.

• Outlook

Overall, while steel exports continued to grow YoY from January to May 2025, exports of sheets & plates, especially low-end HRC, are slowly "receding"... The future of steel exports is full of uncertainties, but it is foreseeable that China's steel exports are undergoing a transformation and upgrading from competing on low prices to exporting more high value-added steel and steel products labeled "Made in China" to the world.